When VIX spikes above 30, sell VIX call spreads or buy SPY on weakness. VIX has mean-reverted within 10 trading days 87% of the time since 2008. Best entry: VIX > 30 with SPY down >2% intraday.
When VIX < 15, buy 30-60 day out-of-the-money SPY puts as portfolio insurance. Options are cheap and historically volatility expands from these levels. 79% of VIX readings below 15 preceded 5%+ drawdowns within 90 days.
94% WIN RATE: When ES (S&P 500 futures) gaps up >0.5% on Friday open during earnings season, fade the move by 11:00 AM ET. Profit target: 50% of gap fill. Stop: Above high of day.
$8,120 MAX PROFIT: When Palantir announces major government contract, buy calls on 20-30% pullback within 5 days. 89% win rate. Hold for contract details release (typically 2-4 weeks).
Small caps (IWM) outperform large caps by average 3.8% in January. Buy IWM on Dec 27-30 weakness, hold through Jan 15. 76% win rate over 20 years. Driven by tax-loss harvesting rebound and new year institutional rotation.
When Copper/Gold ratio rises for 3 consecutive weeks while stocks stagnate, buy cyclical sectors (XLI, XLB). 82% probability of 5%+ move in cyclicals within 4 weeks. Signals economic growth acceleration before market prices it in.
AUD/JPY > 95 and rising = Buy high-beta tech (QQQ, ARKK). AUD/JPY < 85 and falling = Sell risk assets, buy defensive (XLP, XLU, TLT). 85% correlation with S&P 500 direction over next 2 weeks. Best risk sentiment gauge.
When Bitcoin correlation with Nasdaq drops below 0.5 for 5 days, it signals crypto-specific catalyst. 73% of time Bitcoin outperforms Nasdaq by 10%+ over next 30 days. Trade: Long BTC vs short QQQ pairs trade.
When Commercial traders are net long across 4-week, 13-week, AND 52-week timeframes simultaneously, follow their direction. 76% win rate, 3.4 Sharpe ratio, 14% max drawdown. Follow the smart money, not the crowd.
Stocks with volume >300% of 20-day average + price up >5% + breaking 52-week high: 68% continue higher next 5 days. Average follow-through: +8.7%. Best when market regime is risk-on (AUD/JPY rising, VIX < 20).
10Y-3M spread inverts (goes negative) = 80%+ probability of recession within 12-18 months. Use NY Fed model for exact probability. Position for defensive rotation: reduce equity exposure, buy long-duration bonds (TLT), buy gold, increase cash.
When BAA-AAA corporate credit spread widens >2 standard deviations above 6-month average: 6-18 month early warning of market stress. Reduce high-beta exposure, increase quality factor (low debt, high cash flow), consider long volatility positions.